Hi! Trying to get a sense of whether, given historical data, anyone from tier 3, in general education - no DIA - had been accepted at Bard Manhattan or any of the Bards. It is a big ask for students if there is no chance of acceptance.
We can’t get numerical percentage chance, but we can get a possible/not-possible answer by examining how admissions are weighted for each of the Bards and what available data can be found on Amelie Marian’s surveys (https://medium.com/algorithms-in-the-wild/results-from-the-2026-nyc-school-admission-lottery-surveys-0f0df35b8175) .
Let’s take Bard Manhattan as our example. Admissions are determined as follows:
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Average Course Grades - 10%
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Humanities Response - 30%
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Math Portion - 30%
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Interview - 30%
There is no borough priority for Bard Manhattan so there’s nothing else we need to consider. The line “Average Course Grades” is their wording for Screened Group, so only 10 points will be affected by Screened Group. Looking at Amelie’s data for Bard Manhattan, the accepted score cutoff was between 89.2 and 88.4. We know immediately that an offer is possible for any applicant with any Screened Group. If a student aces the three other assessments, they will score 90 plus any additional points for their Screened Group.
You’ll need to make similar checks against the other Bards.